Spot Market Analysis Japan

The SpotEx Japan is an industry leading fundamental and price forecast for Japanese power markets, which provides essential data to power producers, power traders, power retailers, and transmission companies. With increased wind and solar generation and global fuel price changes comes price volatility. Volue has applied its decades-long experience in power market forecasting to offer best-in-class services and intelligence for market players.

All Japan power market data in one place

a one-stop-shop access to 3rd party data from sources such as JEPX, TOCOM, EEX, HJKS, OCCTO, and other proprietary sources.

Real-time connection

Updated 24/7 and every 15 minutes. Data can be accessed through our app or an API data stream for customer modelling and analysis.

Thorough market overview

Up to 46 day ahead price forecasts for 9 price areas in Japan.

Best in class tools

Track record overview comparing model performance to actual prices and flows.

What is the SpotEx model?

The SpotEx model is a short-term price model for power prices and cross-border power exchanges. The model provides half-hourly price forecasts for all price areas in Japan and the System price, and an overview of market coupling between price areas. The model runs on various types of weather forecasts and scenarios (e.g. EC and ensemble paths), supported by machine learning and a team of experienced power market analysts.

What time frame is covered with what granularity?

The spot price and exchange forecast covers up to 46 days into the future at a half-hourly resolution.

What price areas do you cover?

Regional price forecasts are available for Hokkaido, Tohoku, Tokyo, Chubu, Hokuriku, Kansai, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu), as well as the system price, are covered by the SpotEx model for Japan.

A fundamental and power demand forecast is available for the island of Okinawa, which is outside of the JEPX price regime.

How is the System Price calculated?

The SpotEx model uses the regional prices, residual load, and other variables as inputs.

The system price is calculated as the intersection point of the spot curves obtained through bid results of all the regions, SpotEx incorporates the regional prices and residual load into its system price forecast.

Example: Price sensitivities

From the Japan SpotEx you can access the regional price sensitivity analysis. Price sensitivity (価格感応度) is a hypothetical system price based on different system load scenarios.

This is calculated based on hypothetically increased bid volumes by 500MW, 1GW and 5GW respectively. (The hypothetical additional volume is included at a price of 0.01 JPY/kWh for supply, or at a price of 999JPY/kWh for demand) Price sensitivity is applied to 30 minute time periods (48 per day).

What weather data is used as input to the model?

The SpotEx model runs on various weather data input:

ECMWF high resolution forecast (10 day horizon): deterministic (ec00, ec12), updated twice a day.
ECMWF ensemble forecast (15 day horizon): ec00ens, ec12ens, updated twice a day.
ECMWF extended ensemble forecast (46 day horizon): ecmonthly, updated twice per week, on Tuesday and Friday.