Staying Ahead in a Market That Moves with the Weather

Intraday power trading has become a race against time. Liquidity clusters around new information, particularly weather-driven changes in wind and solar output. Yet many traders are still operating on forecast inputs built on weather data that can be 6–12 hours old. That lag is increasingly incompatible with a market where prices can move sharply in a matter of minutes. 

Published

Feb 9, 2026

AI-Weather Rapid Updates was created to close this gap. By combining the AI weather engine from our partner Jua with Volue’s fundamental power modelling, traders gain access to 24 deterministic forecast updates per day, providing a continuously refreshed signal for the next 48 hours across European and Japanese markets. It adds a complementary second signal for SPV and wind alongside the existing fundamentals package.

From Four Forecasts per Day to a Continuous Signal

Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models such as ECMWF and GFS typically update four times per day. These runs are usually available around six hours after model initiation, meaning the underlying weather data driving power production forecasts may be between 6 and 12 hours old by the time traders see the results.  With AI-Weather Rapid Updates, the cadence and freshness of information fundamentally change:

  • 24 updates per day instead of four, providing an hourly refresh of the forecast.   
  • Availability approximately 1.5 hours after each run, rather than ~6 hours.   
  • Weather inputs only 1.5–2.5 hours old, instead of 6–12 hours. 

For intraday traders, this means the production forecasts they rely on for wind and solar are built on vastly fresher information, delivering what many desks have been missing: a near real-time weather-driven signal for short-term power markets.

Precision Where Intraday Decisions Matter Most

The real value of AI-driven weather is not only speed but also accuracy in the 0–48 hour window, where intraday trading decisions have the greatest P&L impact. By learning directly from recent observations and error patterns, AI-weather can adapt more quickly than traditional models when weather conditions change. 
  
This translates into:

  • Improved short-term precision for wind and solar forecasts.   
  • Better anticipation of ramps, drops and volatility phases.
  • Reduced exposure to forecast surprises that often drive sharp intraday price corrections.

For desks trading across the SIDC continuous market and intraday auctions, this granularity and reliability in the near term provide a more solid basis for strategy execution.

Practical Intraday Use Cases

1. Reacting Faster to Changing Weather-Driven Fundamentals

When a new AI-weather update indicates a material shift in expected renewable output, traders have an opportunity to rebalance positions before the broader market has fully reacted, particularly when the change appears hours before updated runs based on NWP models are released.   

2. Managing Position Risk Around Auctions and Gate Closures

Multiple intraday auctions and evolving gate closures require precise timing. With hourly forecast updates, traders can:

  • Reassess positions shortly before key auctions.
  • Adjust volumes based on the latest view, rather than relying on a forecast produced many hours earlier.
  • Better align trading decisions with the most current expectations of wind and solar output in each bidding zone.   

3. Using AI-Weather as a Second Opinion to ECMWF

AI-Weather Rapid Updates is not intended to replace ECMWF and other trusted models but to complement them. Running AI-Weather in parallel provides an independent signal that can reveal: 
Where AI-based forecasts diverge from ECMWF, especially in volatile periods. 
Early indications of under- or overproduction risks that may not yet be visible in standard runs.   
This “second opinion” approach supports stronger risk management by reducing reliance on a single model in critical hours.

Integrating AI-Weather into Intraday Workflows

Because AI-weather Rapid Updates is integrated into Volue’s fundamentals and delivered through both API and application, it can be embedded directly into existing trading workflows:   
Quantitative analysts can incorporate high frequency forecasts into algorithmic models and signals. 
Discretionary traders can monitor updated curves alongside market data in their standard tools. 
Risk teams gain a richer view of weather-driven exposure across portfolios.

Turning Weather into a Competitive Advantage

In short-term power markets, time and information are the new edge. By giving intraday traders a faster, fresher and more accurate weather-driven forecast signal, AI-Weather Rapid Updates helps transform weather from an uncontrollable risk factor into a source of competitive advantage.