Energy Prices in Europe: Trends and Predictions for This Winter and Beyond

From soaring gas prices to the emergence of a ‘quasi’ pan-European price, we asked Insight by Volue analysts what’s in store for the power market this winter and beyond.

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Energy prices in Europe are rising and many are looking for answers. Insight by Volue analysts share their predictions and best advice for the months ahead.

#1 Soaring gas prices

The European gas market is in a frenzy. The front-month TTF contract records new all-time highs on a daily basis, even closing above €70/MWh in mid-September.

The long-awaited Nord Stream 2 pipeline was completed on 10 September, but the first flows are pending a regulatory green light that – if not fast-tracked – could delay the start by several months.

Fresh flows from Nord Stream 2 are keenly awaited to ameliorate Europe’s storage scarcity and to ease the dependency on expensive LNG.

Winter temperatures this year as well as the actual launch of Nord Stream 2 (and the extent to which it will negatively impact Russian imports through other routes) are key factors to watch going forward.

Bjørn Inge Vik, Energy Market Analyst, Insight by Volue

#2 ‘Quasi’ pan-European price for continental power

Any mid-term continental analysis should take into account the enlargement of the Flow-Based Market Coupling to the CORE area as well as the target set by the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) in the Clean Energy Package – 70% minimum RAM (Remaining Available Margin) in the day-ahead market.

Looking at the 2022-2025 horizon, our fundamental analysis shows increasing cross-border capacities and a more efficient exchanges allocation leading to a ‘quasi’ pan-European price.

In addition, beyond 2022, due to the phasing out of the German nuclear fleet and the rising demand for electricity driven by Electric Vehicles and hydrogen electrolysers, we see upside potential for most of Europe.

Silvia Messa and Anamaria Toebe, Senior Analysts, Insight by Volue

#3 Power price jump in Norway

Norway is coming to terms with the consequences of a very dry summer with one of the heaviest deficits in precipitation seen in southern Norway in the past 6 months.

This, together with strong export, can potentially give a very low spring culmination. Our simulations show that even with close to normal weather, there is a risk of reaching critical levels before the snow starts melting in the spring.

In contrast to the market which expects prices to fall significantly from today's spot price level, we expect prices to stay high and probably increase further when the power-heating season starts.

In addition, connecting the North Sea Link cable to the UK brings huge uncertainty since UK spot prices are completely unpredictable these days.

Tor Reier Lilleholt, Head of Analysis, Insight by Volue and Katinka Bogaard, Senior Analyst, Insight by Volue

#4 High carbon prices

The EU’s 'Fit for 55' package of proposals was presented back in July, and we can expect the carbon supply to tighten and renewables to grow in the coming decade. This leads to sustained high carbon EUA prices.

In addition, recently, we have seen that soaring gas prices and macroeconomic optimism are even more important price drivers.

Looking at 2021 and 2022, we have raised our emission expectations moderately, expecting gas-to-hard-coal/lignite switching in thermal power, and more significantly, an increase of the industrial output.

Espen Andreasen, Senior Analyst, Insight by Volue

About Insight by Volue

Insight by Volue is a leading provider of data and consulting services to the European energy market.

Volue provides customers with the insight they need to better understand the European power market by forecasting fundamentals and prices for the short, medium and long-term horizon.

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