Fundamentals Package Contents:

(All data is on daily resolution, covering the Central European Gas Day - stored with timezone CET in the API for convenience)

• Consumption
  Daily historical consumption per country is estimated by the formula:
  
  consumption = imports - exports + withdrawal - injection + production + LNG send-out.
  
  The resulting consumption does not correct for losses and changes in line-pack. The data for imports, exports and production are aggregated from ENTSOG, while data for withdrawal, injection and LNG send-out are mainly from Gas in Europe (GIE).
  For most countries, we split consumption into local distribution zone (LDZ) and power sector consumption. Our Complete Forward stack optimisation model estimates power production from gas, and this is used to create the split between the two sectors back in time. The Complete Forward stack optimisation model gives also the gas consumption in the power sector. LDZ demand is modelled with a regression, with weather parameters, like temperature, and growth rates being the main variables.

• Supply
  We model non-EU supply to Europe from the following sources: Norway, Russia, Algeria, Azerbaijan and Libya. Volue Insight Our forecast for Norway takes into account outage reporting by operator Gassco.

• Production
  Production of European countries is available a few years back. The data for production are aggregated from ENTSOG. Volue Insight forecasts production two years ahead.

• Storage
  Storage data is are available back to 2014. It covers inventory, capacity, withdrawals and injections on national level and on indivudal storage site level. The source for the historical data is GIE. Volue Insight forecasts storage levels two years ahead.

• LNG
  LNG send-out, capacity and inventory data are available back to 2014 for most countries in Europe, both on national level and for individual terminals. The source for the historical data is GIE. Volue Insight forecasts LNG send-out two years ahead, based on a regression where the spread between European and Asian gas prices plays an important role.

• Pipeline
  Historical cross border pipeline flows and firm technical capacity are available for individual inter-connector points and is also aggregated to country to country level data. The source is ENTSOG. Historical time-series data are available generally back to the 2014 to 2020 period.

• JODI dataset
  Historical monthly data from JODI is also available. The JODI database covers demand, pipeline and LNG supply, and storage for a large set of countries all over the world.

Prices:

• Market
  We provide daily closing prices for the main gas hubs in Europe. Sources are EEX (exchange) and Spectron (broker).

• Profiled forward curves
  We provide profiled forward-curves for the covered hubs. Monthly profiled curves are made using seasonal profile generated from the most liquid hub prices (TTF). The seasonal profile is used to increase resolution of the longer term contracts, while keeping the average level over the delivery period. For certain markets, our monthly profile curves are extended beyond the last available traded contracts using the trend of the most liquid market as a reference (TTF). Monthly profiled curves should not be mistaken for actual prices; instead they are a helpful offering in order to compare hub prices with differences in liquidity and the number/size of traded products. The monthly profiled curves are also granulated further to daily resolution, taking into account possible weekend effects and the transition period between day ahead prices and the front month contract.

• Forecasts
  We provide price forecasts for the main hubs in Europe two years ahead (real and delivered). The main machinery behind our forecast is a European wide optimisation model fed with consumption forecasts, supply forecasts, storage targets and cross-border pipeline capacities.