With the increase of wind and solar, it is vital to see how renewable energy generation will change at the short end of the curve. Get a complete overview of your price area of interest and the potential impact of adjoining power markets. Our pan-European short-term model for weather-driven fundamental data, power flows, and prices.
We provide a comprehensive analysis and visualization of alternative forecasts/scenarios updated continuously and close to real time.
Track record overview comparing model performance to actual prices and flows.
Updated 24/7 and every 15 minutes.
The SpotEx model is a two-step algorithm composed of an effective merit order forecast and cross-border exchange forecast. For regions that are dominated by hydropower (e.g. Norway, Northern Sweden and Switzerland), bidding curves replicating the behavior of hydropower producers are used. For price areas dominated by renewables and thermal power output, price-volume curves are estimated. We use our high quality in-house fundamental forecasts (e.g. wind, SPV) alongside UMM data and thermal availability forecasts to estimate these curves. The price-volume curves are trained upon the arrival of new actual day-ahead prices in order to ensure that our price forecasts are both dynamic and always fully updated with the newest market information. The underlying models depend on the price area and are a collection of different machine learning models (e.g. random forest or neural network).
Currently, the following borders are incorporated into Spotex:
Spotex aims to maximize the total welfare optimization function for all European countries simultaneously. The welfare optimization relates to the power production, consumption in the given countries and cross-border flows. The algorithm calculates explicit, implicit and flow-based allocations in one go. The spotex algorithm is a simplified version of Euphemia that can be extended to numerous market topologies, including new FBMC regions in Europe.
The SpotEx model is a comprehensive Pan European short-term price model for power prices and cross-border power exchanges. The model provides hourly price forecasts for the majority of price areas in Europe alongside an overview of market coupling between price areas and also the potential impact of adjoining power markets and/or the rest of Europe. The model considers various fundamental forecasts, thermal capacity, UMMs. The model also runs on various types of fundamental forecasts and scenarios (e.g. EC, GFS, and ensemble paths).
Our spot price and exchange forecasts cover 90 days into the future at an hourly resolution.
The price areas marked in black below are covered by the SpotEx model. The ones in light grey currently are not. We aim to cover all price areas in Europe and aim to expand the SpotEx model in the near future.
Updated forecasts are published every 15 minutes for deterministic runs and every hour for ensemble runs, enabling for continuously updated price and exchange forecasts upon the arrival of new model input. This means that transfer capacities, nuclear outages, shifts in fundamentals, etc. are quickly incorporated into our forecasts.
The SpotEx model runs on various weather data input:
Ana Ilan, Account Executive