SpotEx: Switching to CORE Flow-Based Market Coupling

With the market changes of the new CORE flow-based market coupling on June 8th, Volue Insight has prepared a launch plan for adjusting our PTDF forecast and SpotEx model to account for the new market structure.

Blog emps Or Mu Y Vc original

On June 8th, the Flow Based Market Coupling (FBMC) will be extended to the so called CORE area*. Over the last few months, we have been working on adapting our forecasts in order to take into account the planned changes. Both the PTDF algorithm and the SpotEx model have been upgraded and will be migrated to the CORE FBMC solution in the next few days.

In preparation of these changes, our market experts have summarized expected changes and the main take aways in two blog posts: SpotEx CORE Backcast Evaluation and Observations of the CORE FBMC Parallel Run.

*AT, BE, CZ, DE/LU, FR, HR, HU, NL, PL, RO, SI and SK, as well as two virtual ALEGrO zones ALBE and ALDE

Release Dates (In Chronological Order and Subject to Change):

We plan to transition to the CORE FBMC setup gradually and by weather type, where the weather runs covering the time horizon furthest out are switched first:

  • Weather30 (e.g. «merged» curves day 46 and onwards): May 24th
  • ECMonthly: May 24th
  • EC, GFS deterministic and ensemble runs*: June 8th

*EC00Ens, EC00, EC12, EC12Ens, EC06, GFS00, GFS06, GFS12, GFS18

Any changes in dates or other adjustments will be updated here. This means that our model changes will always be in line with the list above.

What does the CORE FBMC change mean for you as a customer?

As the CORE FBMC market change is quite extensive and results in a lot of new data, there are three options depending on the level of detail and insight you as a customer are interested in:

  1. Full insight into the PTDFs (historical and in-house forecasts) alongside subscribing to SpotEx for all CORE FBMC areas, giving you a complete picture of the market in substantial detail,
  2. Full insight into the PTDFs (historical and in-house forecasts), enabling you to use them directly in your models,
  3. Expanding your existing SpotEx subscription to cover all CORE FBMC areas, giving you insight into the CORE FBMC through price and cross-border flow forecasts.

For a free trial or further questions regarding data access, get in touch with sales.insight@volue.com.

Where Can You Get Ahold of the New Data?

The CORE FBMC data is structured in the same way as the preexisting CWE FBMC data. To make the transition as smooth as possible in your systems, see the following overview:

  • Net Positions
    • Old CWE curves: exc {region} ptdf net jao mw cet h a (in total 7 curves)
    • New CORE curves: exc {region} ptdf core net jao mw cet h a (Updated once JAO provides the data)
  • Max Net Positions
    • Old CWE curves: exc {region} ptdf net {min,max} jao mw cet h a, for all CWE regions (in total: 2 x 7 = 14 curves)
    • New CORE curves: exc {region} ptdf core net {min,max} jao mw cet h a, for all CORE regions (in total: 2 x 14 = 28 curves)
  • Max Border Exchanges
    • Old CWE curves: Do not exist!
    • New CORE curves: exc {region1}>{region2} ptdf core net max jao mw cet h a (in total: 12 x 11 = 132 curves)
  • PTDF & RAM values from Pre-Final Computation (Early Publication) - Actuals
    • Old CWE curves:
      • PTDF: exc {region} ptdf jao n/a cet h a for all CWE regions (in total: 7 curves)
      • RAM: exc cwe ptdf ram jao n/a cet h a (in total: 1 curve)
    • New CORE curves:
      • PTDF: exc {region} ptdf core jao n/a cet h a for all CORE regions (in total: 14 curves)
      • RAM: exc all ptdf core ram jao n/a cet h a (in total: 1 curve)
  • PTDF & RAM values from Pre-Final Computation (Early Publication) - Forecasts (for all 14 weather runs)
    • Old CWE curves:
      • PTDF: exc {region} ptdf {weather_run} n/a cet h f for all CWE regions (in total: 7 x 14 = 98 curves)
      • RAM: exc cwe ptdf ram {weather_run} n/a cet h f (in total: 14 curve)
    • New CORE curves:
      • PTDF: exc {region} ptdf core {weather_run} n/a cet h f for all CORE regions (in total: 14 x 14 = 196 curves)
      • RAM: exc all ptdf core ram {weather_run} n/a cet h f (in total: 14 curve)
  • PTDF & RAM values from Final Computation - Actuals
    • Old CWE curves:
      • PTDF: exc {region} ptdf final jao n/a cet h a for all CWE regions (in total: 7 curves)
      • RAM: exc cwe ptdf final ram jao n/a cet h a (in total: 1 curve)
    • New CORE curves:
      • PTDF: exc {region} ptdf final core jao n/a cet h a for all CORE regions (in total: 14 curves)
      • RAM: exc all ptdf final core ram jao n/a cet h a (in total: 1 curve)

To make the transition simpler for you, we have also prepared a Python script that can be used to extract the data from our API and directly into Pandas in the same way as you can extract other data (e.g. fundamentals, historical spot prices). In order to get ahold of this, please send us an email at support.insight@volue.com.

How Will You Adjust Your App Pages to Account for CORE FBMC?

Our app pages will be updated once we have all relevant historical data needed from JAO. More information will be posted here.

Further questions or want to discuss the implications with us? Get in touch at support.insight@volue.com.

Share